New-vehicle sales in the U.S. ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16.8 million in August 2026, marking the sixth straight month above the 16 million mark, according to Cox Automotive’s own published forecast. It’s the longest such streak since before the pandemic, and it’s happening even as prices and borrowing costs stay elevated.

Key Points

• August’s 16.8 million SAAR beat Cox Automotive’s own prior forecast of 16.3 million, per the company’s release.
• Actual volume came in around 1.38 million units sold in August, down roughly 5.8% from August 2025 — a smaller drop than the 8.5% decline Cox had projected earlier.
• This is the sixth consecutive month the sales pace has topped 16 million, the longest streak since March 2020, right before the pandemic disrupted the market.

What’s Driving It

Cox Automotive senior economist Charlie Chesbrough said the buyers still active in the market skew toward wealthier households with strong credit, a group that has kept spending despite broader economic uncertainty. He noted that if the economy and stock market keep growing — even with volatility along the way — new-vehicle sales should keep following that trend, according to the Cox Automotive forecast.

The pace is strong enough that Cox has signaled it may revise its full-year outlook upward when it releases its next quarterly forecast update on Sept. 24, 2026.

What It Means For Buyers Heading Into Fall

• Inventory: New-vehicle stock stood at about 2.73 million units in July, translating to roughly 75 days’ supply, per Cox Automotive’s vAuto-sourced market snapshot — a healthier level than the tight, pandemic-era shortages, giving shoppers more to choose from.
• Prices: The average new-vehicle transaction price sat at $49,855 in July, with average listing prices running close behind at $49,249.
• Financing: The average new-auto loan rate was 9.76% in July, a real cost factor for anyone financing a purchase this fall.
• Affordability: Cox’s Vehicle Affordability Index put the typical new vehicle at 35.4 weeks of median income needed to buy, a figure that underscores why sales strength is concentrated among higher-income, better-credit buyers rather than the broader population.

For shoppers who held off during the leaner inventory years, the combination of a fuller lot and a still-strong sales pace suggests dealers have room to negotiate on price even as overall demand holds up. Buyers with weaker credit or tighter budgets, though, are still facing a market where financing costs and sticker prices remain a real barrier — which is part of why Cox’s own numbers show a market being carried disproportionately by buyers who can afford to keep paying near-record prices.