Federal regulators are turning up the heat on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has upgraded its investigation into the controversial driver-assistance technology to an engineering analysis, now covering approximately 3.2 million Tesla vehicles.

The probe focuses on concerns that Tesla’s camera-based system struggles in low-visibility conditions like glare, fog, and dust, potentially failing to detect hazards or warn drivers until seconds before a crash—or not at all. NHTSA has identified nine incidents potentially linked to these issues, including one fatal crash and two involving injuries.

This escalation represents a significant step toward a possible recall of Tesla’s FSD system. The engineering analysis covers millions of vehicles and marks the final stage before regulators decide whether to mandate a formal recall, raising questions about the effectiveness of Tesla’s shift to a camera-only approach and whether the company’s technology can safely handle real-world driving conditions.

What Prompted The Federal Investigation Into Tesla’s FSD

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration escalated its scrutiny of Tesla’s autonomous driving technology after identifying multiple crashes and safety violations involving vehicles operating with Full Self-Driving engaged. The federal safety regulator’s concerns center on the system’s inability to handle reduced visibility conditions and potential gaps in how Tesla reports crashes to authorities.

Expansion Of NHTSA’s Probe To Cover Millions Of Teslas

NHTSA upgraded its investigation to an Engineering Analysis covering an estimated 3,203,754 vehicles. This represents a significant expansion from the preliminary evaluation that started in October 2024.

The Office of Defects Investigation moved the probe from a Preliminary Evaluation to an Engineering Analysis, which is typically the final step before the agency either closes a case or pushes for a recall. The agency usually completes an Engineering Analysis within 18 months, involving deeper technical testing and additional information requests from the manufacturer.

This marks the third concurrent federal investigation into FSD. NHTSA is already running a separate probe into 58 incidents involving traffic violations, plus another inquiry into Tesla’s crash reporting practices.

Crash Reports And Traffic Violations Linked To FSD

The investigation initially opened after NHTSA identified four crashes in reduced visibility conditions, including one fatal incident involving a pedestrian. The scope has since expanded to nine total incidents with one fatality and one injury.

NHTSA is examining six additional potentially related incidents on top of those nine crashes. The conditions involved include sun glare, fog, and airborne dust—common roadway situations that any driver encounters regularly.

The vehicles either lost track of or completely missed other cars directly ahead of them before impact. In several cases, Tesla’s camera-only system essentially went blind without alerting the driver until it was too late to prevent a collision.

Key Role Of The Degradation Detection System

The degradation detection system sits at the heart of NHTSA’s concerns. This software is designed to recognize when cameras can’t see properly and alert drivers, but the federal safety regulator found it fails under common roadway conditions.

According to NHTSA, the system “did not detect common roadway conditions that impaired camera visibility and/or provide alerts when camera performance had deteriorated until immediately before the crash occurred.” A fatal crash involving FSD and reduced visibility occurred on November 28, 2023. Tesla submitted the required Standing General Order report for that crash on June 27, 2024—seven months later.

The very next day, Tesla began developing an update to the degradation detection system. However, Tesla’s own analysis indicated that its updated system would have affected only three of the nine identified crashes.

Concerns Over Crash Reporting And Data Gaps

Tesla told the agency that internal “data and labeling limitations” prevented it from uniformly identifying and analyzing crashes that occurred while the degradation detection system was engaged. NHTSA believes this limitation “could have led to under-reporting of subject crashes over portions of the defined time-period.”

The agency still doesn’t know when Tesla’s degradation detection update was actually deployed or which vehicles have received it. This echoes the separate NHTSA investigation into Tesla’s crash reporting practices and the ongoing struggle to get Tesla to turn over FSD traffic violation data, where the company has received multiple deadline extensions.

The pattern suggests Tesla either can’t or won’t provide clear data about FSD-related crashes to federal investigators.

Critical Issues With Tesla’s Self-Driving Technology

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s escalated probe centers on specific technical failures in Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system, particularly how the camera-based technology struggles in certain conditions. These concerns extend beyond visibility issues to include basic traffic law compliance and the broader implications for Tesla’s autonomous vehicle strategy.

Why Reduced Visibility Poses Major Risks

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving system relies exclusively on cameras to navigate roads, and NHTSA’s engineering analysis targets how these cameras perform in reduced visibility. The investigation focuses on conditions like fog and sun glare where camera sensors may fail to accurately detect road conditions.

Federal regulators have identified multiple incidents where FSD struggled to maintain safe operation when visual clarity decreased. The camera-only architecture lacks redundancy that other sensor types might provide in these situations.

Airborne obstructions and low-light scenarios present particular challenges for optical systems. When cameras can’t properly distinguish road markings, traffic signals, or other vehicles, the risk of accidents increases significantly across the millions of Tesla vehicles equipped with this technology.

FSD’s Problems With Running Red Lights And Lane Violations

Tesla faces scrutiny over incidents where vehicles drove through red lights and violated traffic laws while operating in Full Self-Driving mode. These violations represent fundamental failures in the system’s ability to recognize and obey basic traffic controls.

The investigation links 58 incidents to the FSD system, including cases where vehicles failed to properly interpret traffic signals. Wrong-way signage recognition also appears problematic in certain scenarios.

Lane violations suggest the system struggles with understanding road boundaries and proper positioning. These aren’t minor glitches but core safety functions that any driving system must handle reliably before claiming advanced autonomy capabilities.

Comparing Tesla’s Camera-Only Approach To Waymo

Tesla’s decision to use only cameras sets it apart from competitors like Waymo, which employs multiple sensor types including lidar and radar. Elon Musk has defended the camera-only strategy as more cost-effective and theoretically sufficient since humans drive with vision alone.

Waymo’s multi-sensor approach provides redundancy when one system faces limitations. Lidar works effectively in darkness and fog where cameras struggle, creating overlapping layers of environmental awareness.

The regulatory investigation may force a reckoning with this philosophical difference. While cameras keep costs lower, the safety trade-offs become more apparent when federal agencies examine real-world performance data across millions of vehicles.

Regulatory Pressure And The Impact On Tesla’s Robotaxi Ambitions

The expanded NHTSA investigation could lead to a recall campaign affecting 3.2 million vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving technology. This timing creates complications for Tesla’s planned robotaxi service, which depends on demonstrating that FSD can operate safely without human supervision.

Federal regulators granted Tesla a five-week extension to respond to allegations about its self-driving technology. The company faces mounting pressure to prove its system meets safety standards before expanding autonomous operations.

Any recall or enforcement action would directly challenge the viability of Tesla’s robotaxi plans. The business model requires regulatory approval and public confidence that the technology can handle diverse conditions reliably, precisely what the current investigation questions.

 

 

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