Drivers who spent the past few years bracing for sticker shock at the pump are finally getting a different kind of forecast. GasBuddy now expects the national average price of regular gasoline to slip under $3 a gallon at points this year, a level not seen on a sustained basis since before the pandemic. If that projection holds, 2026 could mark a rare reprieve in the long stretch of fuel-driven inflation that has squeezed household budgets.
The projected break in prices reflects a mix of softer global oil markets, steady U.S. production and cooling demand, all converging to pull down what Americans pay at the pump. It also signals a shift from the crisis atmosphere that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when gasoline became a daily symbol of broader economic anxiety and geopolitical risk.
GasBuddy’s sub-$3 call and what it really means
GasBuddy’s latest outlook argues that the typical driver will see a national average price that dips below $3 per gallon at times this year, with the full-year average landing at $2.97 per gallon. That figure, described as $2.97, would mark the lowest annual average since the pre-COVID era and a clear step down from the price spikes that defined 2022. Analysts see this as a psychological turning point as much as a financial one, signaling that the worst of the pump shock may be behind consumers even if volatility has not disappeared.
That national figure masks wide regional differences, which GasBuddy and other forecasters stress will persist. A report highlighted by Hannah Parker notes that drivers in high-tax coastal states and dense urban areas are still likely to see prices well above the national mean, even as the countrywide average drifts lower. In parts of the Midwest and South, by contrast, sub-$3 gas could become common for long stretches, underscoring how state taxes, refining access and local competition shape what any individual driver actually pays.
Cheapest year since before COVID, but not without turbulence
Forecasters broadly agree that 2026 is on track to be the least expensive year for gasoline since the pandemic upended global demand. Analysts cited by forecasters say 2026 will be the cheapest year for gas, pointing to a combination of moderating oil prices and more efficient vehicle fleets. That is a sharp contrast with the period After Russia invaded Ukraine, when crude markets convulsed and gasoline became, as one account put it, “ground zero” in the inflation crisis that rippled through the broader economy.
Even with that relief, the outlook is not a straight line down. GasBuddy’s own forecast of a lower yearly average unseen in years still describes 2026 as a “volatile year” for gas prices, with seasonal swings and potential supply disruptions capable of producing short-lived spikes. The same outlook estimates that the typical household will spend $2,083 on gasoline this year, a meaningful drop from recent years but still a sizable line item that leaves families exposed whenever prices jump.
Oil markets, the EIA and the path from $69 to $55 per barrel
The projected break in pump prices rests heavily on expectations for crude oil, and here the U.S. Energy Information Administration, or EIA, is central. In its latest outlook, the agency projects that benchmark Brent crude will fall from about $69 to roughly $55 per barrel, a decline that would filter directly into lower wholesale gasoline costs. That $55 target is paired with expectations that U.S. oil production will remain relatively steady, limiting the risk of a supply crunch that could send prices sharply higher again.
Separate analysis echoed in a report on oil and gas prices expected to stay significantly lower through 2026 reinforces that view, noting that gasoline prices are also projected to decline in line with the EIA’s report. The logic is straightforward: if crude benchmarks ease and refining capacity remains intact, retail gasoline should follow, even if local taxes and distribution costs create pockets of resistance. That backdrop gives GasBuddy’s sub-$3 call a firmer foundation than simple optimism, tying it to a broader shift in global energy markets rather than a one-off seasonal dip.
How much relief drivers will actually feel
For individual drivers, the headline number matters less than what shows up on the sign at the corner station. GasBuddy’s national forecast suggests that many Americans will see prices starting with a “2” again, but the experience will vary sharply by region. A local report from Maryland, for example, notes that gas prices expected to drop below $3 per gallon in 2026 could still leave some urban and coastal areas paying more than the national average, even if they remain below the extreme highs of 2022. That pattern reflects how transportation costs, environmental rules and state-level fuel taxes stack on top of the underlying commodity price.
Consumers who want to capture as much of the projected savings as possible are increasingly turning to tools that track prices station by station. The national motor club AAA maintains a daily snapshot of pump prices through its gas price tracker, while a separate AAA resource encourages drivers to save by Using the Fuel Price Finder, which highlights how Prices can vary even within a few miles and urges motorists to Use the AAA Gas Pric tools to shop around. Those services, along with apps like GasBuddy’s own mobile platform, make it easier for drivers of popular models such as the Toyota RAV4 or Ford F-150 to plan fill-ups around cheaper stations, amplifying the benefit of a lower national average.
From crisis to cautious optimism at the pump
The shift toward cheaper gasoline is especially striking when set against the past two decades of price anxiety. Earlier commentary on pump shocks, including a 2005 warning that advised readers, “For updated gas price information, visit AAA‘s Web site,” captured how quickly prices could “shoot up” on geopolitical or refinery news. The years around 2022 revived that fear, as global conflict and supply chain snarls pushed gasoline into uncharted territory and turned every road trip into a budgeting exercise. Against that backdrop, a projected national average below $3 feels less like a windfall and more like a long-delayed normalization.
Still, analysts caution that “cheaper” does not mean “cheap,” and that the forces pushing prices down can reverse. The same global tensions that once followed After Russia moved into Ukraine have not fully resolved, and any fresh disruption in oil supply could test the EIA’s relatively benign outlook. For now, though, the combination of a projected Fuel Outlook centered on Key metrics like Projected annual prices, a supportive EIA forecast and household spending estimates around $2,083 offers something drivers have not had in years: a credible reason to expect that the next long drive might cost a little less than the last.
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